WIT Press

Probabilistic Models For Risk Assessment Of Disasters


Free (open access)

Paper DOI






Page Range

83 - 90




419 kb


A. Lepikhin & I. Lepikhina


This article considers risk models related to disasters of complex engineering systems. It is proposed to include parameters of system vulnerability, survivability and security into risk models. Types of risk function for different disaster mechanisms are discussed. It is shown that the risk functions may have both exponential and power mode peculiarity. The mechanism of transformation the exponential distribution into power mode (Pareto) distribution is determined. Keywords: engineering systems, disaster, risk function, probabilistic model, failure processes. 1 Introduction Numerous studies have been carried out in recent years on safety of engineering systems and technologies. Safety factors, criteria, models and methods of risk assessment are permanently discussed in literature [1, 2]. Based on analysis of theory and practices on safety measures for technical systems a number of problems in risk analysis methodology can be formulated [3]. The first problem is that technological progress provides the opportunity of making more and more complex and large systems. This in turn increases manmade hazards. Along with, the safety requirements are becoming stricter, while the securing resource base is limited. We think that we are now above the crisis point when the safety requirements exceed securing resources. In future, the gap will grow and the risks will increase. These new risks will be of critical and global type and must be investigated. The problem is that the main attention is paid for research of statistical events with small risks. At the present time, evolving critical systems are the main source of engineering hazards. These


engineering systems, disaster, risk function, probabilistic model, failure processes