WIT Press


A Distributed Multi-level System For The Monitoring And Simulation Of Epidemics

Price

Free (open access)

Paper DOI

10.2495/RISK100481

Volume

43

Pages

13

Page Range

583 - 595

Published

2010

Size

4,426 kb

Author(s)

A. Najgebauer, D. Pierzchała & R. Kasprzyk

Abstract

Crisis management is a very complicated process. Computer support makes this process more effective and improves its quality. In this paper an approach to modelling, simulation and forecasting the effects of hazards in crisis situations is presented. The classification of hazards is proposed – it has the form of formally defining a threat’s catalogue. In this case the attention is focused on the mathematical model of the security of urban agglomeration. The proposed models and methods are the bases for the distributed decision support system. Last season’s flu virus infected so many people in Poland that the problem of lack of hospital beds appeared. In 2009, several parts of that system – monitoring, early warning and forecasting risks of the influenza virus – were put into practice in the Government Safety Centre. Now, the system named SARNA has over 600 institutional users on the levels of poviat (district) – voivodship and (province) – country. Keywords: decision support, crisis situation, catalogue of threats, security ontology, semantic networks. 1 Introduction The safety of each country, as well as its threats, have multiple sources and dimensions: political, economic, ecological, legal, military, etc. One of the most important dimensions is human security. Most of the identified threats affect large population centres, including particularly the large cities and metropolitan areas. Among many disasters on a worldwide scale, there is one that concerns almost each country of the world. It is the influenza virus (flu) and a new strain, which is called swine influenza (A H1N1). Last season’s flu has infected so many people that the problem of lack of hospital beds appeared. Due to the high risk of

Keywords

decision support, crisis situation, catalogue of threats, security ontology, semantic networks