Author(s)

B. Jokšas, I. Žutautaitė-Šeputienė, J. Augutis & E. Ušpuras

Abstract

In this paper a developed mathematical model of hazard distribution within a network system with a resistance feature is presented. The network system is described by graph theory. Hazards arising can be transmitted to others nodes which have connections with the infected node. Intensity of hazard transmission is described by channel bandwidth between the nodes of the network system. Each node has the ability to resist incoming hazards (to reduce it to safe level) in a network system. This ability is called resistance of the node. Resistance (or immunity) is regarded as random variables (or a random process) and Beta distribution is an appropriate probabilistic model of the node resistance. The main purpose of this research work is developing a mathematical model that allows us to make forecast of how many cycles are necessary on average to eliminate hazards or to reduce to a safe level; how long (how many average cycles) system can work normally (corresponding to safety requirements) under the influence of hazard. Developed mathematical model of hazard distribution in a network system with resistance feature could be used in the assessment of operation safety of emergency systems that are provided to operate in extreme conditions during an accident as well. Keywords: hazard distribution, resistance, Bayesian approach. 1 Introduction Not always is it possible to perform reliability analysis for devices separately. Because, usually, devices don’t operate separately, so its influence on each other must be considered. Combinations of devices, humans etc., structure network system (i.e. nodes and network lines or channels that represent interaction

Keywords

hazard distribution, resistance, Bayesian approach