WIT Press


Bayesian Inference In Oil Spill Response Management

Price

Free (open access)

Paper DOI

10.2495/RISK100041

Volume

43

Pages

12

Page Range

35 - 46

Published

2010

Size

3,738 kb

Author(s)

R. Aps, N. Sawano, S. Hamada & M. Fetissov

Abstract

La Perouse (Soya) Strait, 40 km in width, separates Hokkaido Island (Japan) from Sakhalin Island (Russia), and connects the Sea of Japan to the west with the Sea of Okhotsk to the east. Vessel Automatic Identification System (AIS) data analysis for that strait, conducted in Japan, has shown extremely busy ship transport and a number of dangerous crossings, with a great deal of that transport being crude oil. The Web application integrates the Potential Incident Simulation, Control and Evaluation System (PISCES 2) and the Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) maps for environmental risk assessment, while the Bayesian consensual decision tool is used to support consensus building among oil spill response managers. Keywords: oil spill response, environmental risk assessment, Hokkaido Island, potential incident simulation, control and evaluation system (PISCES 2), environmental sensitivity index (ESI), Bayesian consensual decision ranking. 1 Introduction The Sea of Okhotsk is a part of the western Pacific Ocean, lying between the Kamchatka Peninsula to the east, the Kuril Islands to the southeast, the island of Hokkaido to the far south, the island of Sakhalin along the west, and a long stretch of the eastern Siberian coast (including the Shantar Islands) along the west and north. In the Sea of Okhotsk, off the Island of Sakhalin, the Royal

Keywords

oil spill response, environmental risk assessment, Hokkaido Island, potential incident simulation, control and evaluation system (PISCES 2), environmental sensitivity index (ESI), Bayesian consensual decision ranking