WIT Press

An Individual Risk Model In The Case Of A Road Accident To Support The Decisional Process In Planning


Free (open access)

Paper DOI






Page Range

481 - 493




2,920 kb


F. A. Marcianò & A. Vitetta


In this paper an individual risk model in the case of road accidents is presented. The aim is to estimate the probability of a pedestrian being involved and the probability of injuries under pre-assigned conditions. The model calculates the individual risk of drivers and pedestrians moving in predefined scenarios that can be changed according with the purpose of the analysis. The model evaluates, in a quantitative way, each attribute’s share in accident occurrence, and the relation between risk level and attribute. The model can support the decisional process in planning, allowing one to compare hazard levels of various hypothetical scenarios and to analyse the weight and the elasticity of each attribute that characterize the accident scenario. The results are presented of a test performed in the city of Reggio Calabria (Italy) in order to verify the model transferability and reliability. Keywords: road accident, risk analysis, individual risk, drivers, pedestrians. 1 Introduction Italian road accident statistics show the gravity for safety on the Italian road network, for the high number of fatalities and injuries. In Italy, every day there are approximately 598 accidents, 13 casualties and 849 injured [1]. One aspect of road safety analysis concerns the protection of \“weak categories” of road users, as it is for pedestrians. In Italy 6.6% of accidents with injuries and 13.7% of deaths involve pedestrians. These numbers assume even greater importance if considering that accidents involving pedestrians account


road accident, risk analysis, individual risk, drivers, pedestrians