WIT Press


A Sequential Dynamic Choice Model To Simulate Demand In Evacuation Conditions

Price

Free (open access)

Paper DOI

10.2495/RISK100371

Volume

43

Pages

12

Page Range

431 - 442

Published

2010

Size

2,906 kb

Author(s)

F. Russo & G. Chilà

Abstract

When a dangerous event occurs, a variety of events affects the system characteristics of users and of the transportation network in the time. Dynamic models allow us to simulate variation in choice probability from one time to another, considering temporal evolution of user characteristics and of dangerous event. Among dynamic models, sequential dynamic discrete choice models represent a special class and are proposed in this work to simulate evacuation conditions. Sequential tests are introduced to validate the proposed model and in order to ascertain whether current decisions are directly influenced by the most recent previous decisions. Sequential tests are specified for evacuation condition simulation and allow us to assess the significance of the reduction in uncertainty. Keywords: evacuation conditions, sequential dynamic demand model, sequential test. 1 Introduction A discrete choice model could be specified, calibrated and implemented to simulate several choices of transport and mobility, such as transport mode, path choice and car ownership. Discrete choice models are defined in respect of several elements: decision maker, choice set, attributes and parameters, random residuals [1–3]. These elements vary if ordinary or evacuation conditions are considered [4, 5] and, for evacuation conditions, in relation to the event type which may lead a state of emergency [4–6]. The event type can be classified in relation to [4–6]: a natural or anthropogenic kind; immediate or delayed effect in the time; punctiform or diffuse effect in the space; involved component of transport system.

Keywords

evacuation conditions, sequential dynamic demand model, sequential test