An Integrated Approach For Risk Analysis Based On CFD Modelling And Reliability Engineering
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V. C. Damaso, P. A. M. Cabral & L. A. Aguiar
This work presents a methodology for the reduction of risks based on a reliability engineering study. In order to explain the methodology, a hypothetical case study is considered, where the scenario is the accidental release, into the environment, of a toxic chemical substance from a chemical process plant, leading to exposure of the local population. The dispersion is modelled by CFD-based software. The optimization process leads the calculated risk (individual and societal) to values below the tolerable limits in accordance with the supervisory boards. The connection between CFD, risk analysis and reliability calculations attests to the robustness and applicability of the proposed approach. Keywords: risk analysis, CFD, reliability engineering, optimization. 1 Introduction According to a comprehensive definition, risk can be defined as the product between the frequency of occurrence of a hazard scenario and the corresponding consequences, whenever this scenario may occur. Therefore, mitigation actions should reduce the frequency of undesirable events or their consequences. Industrial technicians are responsible for implementing and maintaining safe measures which, combined with maintenance rules, will provide lower failure probabilities for critical equipment/processes. Accidental and/or intentional releases of large amounts of hazardous chemicals into the atmosphere are actual possibilities, and emergency teams must be prepared to deal with these alarming situations.
risk analysis, CFD, reliability engineering, optimization