Keynote Address : Risk Concepts For Optimal Hydrocarbon Production
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O. T. Gudmestad
In order to ensure optimal production from hydrocarbon reserves, it is necessary to see to that risks in the production process are managed. This relate to limit the probability for production standstill and to limit the consequences of a production standstill. We emphasise on the causes of a production stop which are technical and which also relate to human behavior as well as sabotage and other unwanted incidents. Further, we discuss the consequences of a production stop which could be unexpected expenses and production delays caused by a need to perform maintenance. Other consequences could be safety and environmental related and could cause safety hazards and environmental damages. In order to manage the risk, we point to the needs for risk analysis which could be qualitative or quantitative. Thus, risks can be identified and risk mitigation efforts can be identified and implemented. We also discuss the benefits to an operating company and to the authorities of implementing a risk based scheme for securing the optimum production from a hydrocarbon province. Throughout the paper we refer to management of seismic risk and mitigation measures to manage the seismic risk by reducing the probability of severe consequences associated with seismic events. Keywords: risks, probability, consequences, QRA, international standards, seismic events, risk mitigation.
risks, probability, consequences, QRA, international standards, seismic events, risk mitigation.