WIT Press

Exploring Changes In Land Use, Population, Transport And Economics With CAST


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WIT Press


L. Jankovic, W. Hopwood & Z. Alwan


The paper reports on research into city modelling based on principles of Science of Complexity. It focuses on integration of major processes in cities, such as economics, land use, transport and population movement. This is achieved using an extended Cellular Automata model, which allows cells to form networks, and operate on individual financial budgets. The model uses 22 land use cell types, with detailed process definitions in each cell. The integration is achieved as an emergent consequence of complex cell interactions. The formation of networks is based on supply and demand mechanisms for products, skills, accommodation, and services. Demand for transport is obtained as an emergent property of the system resulting from the network connectivity and relevant economic mechanisms. Population movement is another emergent property of the system, resulting from mechanisms in the housing market. Income and expenditure of individual cells are self-regulated through market mechanisms and changing patterns of land use are obtained as consequence of collective interaction of all mechanisms in the model. Analysis of state of the art carried out by the research team has identified that the main differences between CAST and other models are in the higher integration of mechanisms of operation of the city, and in the higher level of detail of processes in cells. As CAST is being developed in collaboration with prospective end users it is believed that it addresses key issues required by decision makers. Keywords: urban modelling, complexity, integration, land use, planning, sustainability.


urban modelling, complexity, integration, land use, planning, sustainability.