Author(s)

DANA ABUZINADAH

Abstract

The renewable energy transition is dependent on critical minerals including cobalt, graphite, lithium, nickel and rare earth elements. However, the geopolitical and institutional dynamics underpinning their procurement remain under-explored. This research investigated how the distribution of mineral stocks, governance indicators and trade relationships influence a country’s position in the global mineral economy. Rather than assuming that mineral endowments alone determine influence, this study argues that institutional infrastructure, policy environments and international cooperation shape how countries participate in and benefit from global supply chains. Historically, transitions in energy source use have restructured markets even when previous energy sources remain in use. Moreover, transitions often reinforce colonial and imperial legacies of exploitation, with so-called developed countries benefitting from lower transitional costs while developing countries face higher burdens in terms of costs and access to technologies and refined materials. This pattern persists in the context of renewable energy. In fact, the context of critical minerals and its evident vulnerability to supply chain disruptions exacerbates global wealth inequalities. Following Wallerstein’s World Systems Theory, this paper argues that countries experiencing resource and mineral wealth can be exploited and confined to the peripheries of economic, social, political and technological development by countries possessing higher geopolitical influence. The study aggregates data from the US Geological Survey, BTI Economic Transformation, Governance and Political Transformation Indices, UN trade and material flow registers and Chatham House Resource Trade Data to explore how these factors influence the multidimensional positioning of countries. Clustering analysis identifies patterns of power and vulnerability within the mineral trade, ultimately challenging the traditionally established binary of winners and losers. The research contributes to a growing body of literature unpacking the notion of energy sovereignty, illustrating how control over minerals deemed critical shapes global powers in the pursuit of long-term sustainability.

Keywords

critical minerals, political economy, energy transition, geopolitical asymmetries