Author(s)

MARGHERITA GOBBO, MOHAMAD KHAJEDEHI, MICHELE DE CARLI, MILICA MITROVIC

Abstract

The building sector is responsible for 40% of energy consumption in Italy, making it a key focus for achieving national and European climate goals. To mobilize private investment in energy-efficient renovations, the Italian government has introduced several tax incentives including the Ecobonus and the Superbonus 110%. Yet, the recent rollback of the former (Decree 11/2023) raises important questions about the future of Italy’s energy transition, particularly in view of the 2024 revision of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD, 2024/1275). This paper traces the evolution of the energy retrofit market in Italy through an in-depth case study of the Veneto region. Using data from ENEA’s Annual Reports on Tax Deductions, it examines how different incentive schemes have influenced user behaviour and technology uptake. Combining this empirical analysis with the Bass diffusion model, the study models market dynamics over time and explores future adoption scenarios. This unique approach embeds time-series incentive data into knowledge derived from on-the-ground information. The findings underscore the transformative potential of well-structured incentives in guiding citizens towards more sustainable choices and consequently in achieving substantial energy savings.

Keywords

energy policy, energy transition market, fiscal incentives, ENEA