Author(s)

Harald Kunstmann, Wolfgang Kinzelbach & Gerrit van Tender

Abstract

Groundwater resources and aquifer parameters are usually poorly known and model results suffer from uncertainty. This uncertainty is acceptable only if it can be quantified. The quantification allows to take conservative decisions and to determine when a decision is only possible after further data collection. Mote Carlo techniques are suited for this analysis but usually require a huge computational effort. An alternative and computationally efficient approach is the First Order Second Moment Technique (FOSM) which directly propagates the uncertainty originating from parameter uncertainty into the result. We formulate the FOSM method for both the groundwater flow and transport equations in a way suitable for application to field studies. The FOSM method is applied to the computation of s

Keywords