Modelling The Impact Of Climate Change And Variability On Water Availability And Economic Likelihood: An Example From The Caribbean
Free (open access)
1061 - 1072
A. A. Gohar, A. Cashman
Climate change and variability continues to receive attention as a major challenge for water resources, food security, and economic wellbeing especially in tropical SIDS. Research on climate change and variability has tended to concentrate on the physical dimension, yet less attention has been paid to the consequences for human and economic related activities. This research aims to investigate the impact of climate change and variability on water availability, food security, agricultural land use, and economic wellbeing in a tropical environment. An optimizing framework has been developed which balanced those competing demands. Results indicate that climate change has a greater negative impact on water availability and food security as compared to the impact of climate variability, where variability tends to mitigate the impact of the climate changes. The consequences of climate changeability are unevenly distributed across economic sectors and users. Consumers experience the negative consequences particularly when water Abstraction is constrained for sustainability purpose. The approach provides a comprehensive tool for explaining the effectiveness of adaptation measures and possible policy response.
climate change, climate variability, water availability, food security, water demand, positive mathematical programming