Author(s)

L. Gucma

Abstract

The navigation risk is usually estimated by means of simulation researches. The appropriate numbers of simulation trials are executed for probability of accident calculation. Later on, navigational risk can be assessed with additional information about consequences of given accidents. Usually the simulations are executed in given meteorological conditions and all subsequent risk analyses are performed separately for such simulation cases. Until now there are no practical methods for total risk analysis with consideration of possible change of vessels parameters, meteorological conditions, type of performed manoeuvre and navigation marking used in analysed area. All these problems can be considered by presented method, which is based on statistical sampling from accident probability distributions obtained from simulations performed in different conditions. The practical application of presented method is exampled by simulation researches carried out at the entrance to Swinoujscie Port. 1 Introduction The most hazardous stage of the vessel’s voyage is concerned with navigation on restricted waters, in ports and on the waterways. From the other hand the consequences of such accident will not lead to human fatalities but mainly to economic loses due to closing the port or environmental impacts because of possible oil spills. In such cases, the main engineering problem is to estimate properly the probability of vessel grounding due to exceeding horizontal boundaries of manoeuvring area. To solve this problem the real time simulations are usually applied for navigation risk and probability of accident evaluation. There are three main reasons of such procedure:

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