WIT Press


Dynamic Model For Energy Security Level Assessment

Price

Free (open access)

Paper DOI

10.2495/RISK120031

Volume

44

Pages

10

Page Range

21 - 30

Published

2012

Size

468 kb

Author(s)

J. Augutis, S. Pečiulytė, R. Krikštolaitis, I. Žutautaitė & E. Ušpuras

Abstract

Effective functioning of the energy sector is very important for the economy of every modern state. Thus, energy security is an inseparable part of the total economic security of the state. Energy security indicators were constructed for the investigation of the Lithuanian energy security level. The purpose of the paper is to construct a dynamic model for energy security level assessment. Dynamic model of indicators will enable us to forecast the Lithuanian energy security level according to different factors, such as building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, power interconnections between Lithuania and Poland (LitPolLink), etc. Since technical parameters of new objects are not exactly known, these uncertainties should be reflected in the initial conditions of a differential equations system. Thus, in such conditions, the values of indicators are random variables. The paper presents a model of dynamic indicators and pilot calculations. Keywords: energy supply security, dynamic model, energy security indicators.

Keywords

Keywords: energy supply security, dynamic model, energy security indicators