WIT Press


The Method Of Average Navigation Risk Assessment With Consideration Of Inequality Of Ship's Accident Probability Along The Waterway

Price

Free (open access)

Paper DOI

10.2495/RISK000121

Volume

45

Pages

10

Published

2000

Size

852 kb

Author(s)

L. Gucma

Abstract

The navigation risk can be assessed by simulation method. The appropriate numbers of simulation trials are executed for accident probability calculation. Later on navigational risk can be estimated with additional information about consequences. Usually the risk is considered for critical points of the fairway only - other safer places are omitted. Such a practice can lead to underestimating the risk level and losing the important information about the process of ship passage through the fairway. The paper presents method of navigation risk assessment for entire waterways on basis of Swinoujscie-Szczecin fairway. The presented method is based on function of risk distribution along the analysed part of the waterway. The shape and parameters of risk distribution have been also estimated. 1 Introduc

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