Author(s)

K.Blennow and O.Salinas

Abstract

A rationale for providing decision support in complex situations by the use of computer models is outlined and exemplified with the hazard windthrow in forestry. A presentation of a system of models for formal assessment of the risk of windthrow is included. The risk of windthrow depends on the stability of the trees, and the frequency of occurrence and magnitudes of strong winds (exposure). Our approach to model the risk of windthrow is centred on these aspects and includes i/ a modified version of the Finnish model HWIND used to calculate the stability of the forest stands, ii/ a model for parameterising aerodynamical properties of the landscape surrounding each individual forest stand, and iii/ the Danish exposure model WA^P for simulating the dist

Keywords