Author(s)

A.P. Belov & R.J. Wiltshire

Abstract

Short term pollution prediction from migrating plume A.P. Belov, R.J. Wiltshire DeparZmeTtZ o/ Ma^ema(2cs dTic University of Glamorgan, Pontypridd, Introduction Modelling of pollutant dispersion in the atmosphere has a long history, e.g. Pasquil^. Semi-empirical theories of atmospheric turbulent diffusion employ random mixing and averaged descriptions of atmospheric parameters and transported substances. Complexities of dynamics, large ranges of motion scales shortages of external information required to complete a physical problem, impede the forecast of weather and pollutant dispersion, Lamb^. Tribbia & Antes^. Thus, modelling of pollution from the real accidents, e.g. radionuclid dispersion from the Chernobyl IV reactor explosion, Akbergel et a?, occur some years after the accident, when the meteorological and emission data became available. Nevertheless, prompt forecasting of pollutant dispersion from accidents is still essential. One

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