Author(s)

H. Toritani, M. Yokozawa & S. Yonemura

Abstract

We estimate the time change of the rice production for every 10 years for a period of 100 years by using the MRJ's CGCM containing the transient COz experiment,^ and the crop model named SIMRJW/ On this estimation by these models, we choose the 'Koshihikari' as a representative cultivar and assume optimal cultivation technologies are adopted. Annual and summer seasonis mean air temperature increase almost linearly, and become 2.0 to 3.0 degree C higher after 70 years, 3.0 to 4.0 degree C higher after 100 years, and these temperature changes are almost 1.0 to 2.0 degree C smaller than the predictions of previous studies/ ^' ™ As a result of this, the cultivated area of 'Koshihikari'

Keywords