Author(s)

Yun-Sheng Yu & Shimin Zou

Abstract

A dynamic factor model for forecasting surface water quality Yun-Sheng Yu, Shimin Zou Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Kansas, ABSTRACT A dynamic factor model and an autor egress ive model for factor scores are developed for surface water-quality data. The combined model permits the state-space formulation of the system and the use of the Kalman filter for forecasting the time series of water quality constituents. The calibrated model using the monthly water quality data for ten constituents at Station 214 of the Neosho River is used for forecasting the time series of water quality constituents. Introduction Measurements of water quality constituents at a monitoring station in a watershed represent the cumulative effects of all sources of pollutants upstream from the station. These constituents do not respond instantaneously to the changes in land uses, climate, and sources of pollutants, etc. in the wate

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