WIT Press

An HACCP Approach Integrating Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment And Shelf Life Prediction


Free (open access)

Paper DOI






Page Range

125 - 134




89 kb


V. Popov, D. P. Janevska & R. Gospavic


The presence and growth of specific food pathogens (SFP) and specific spoilage organisms (SSO) in food products is associated, respectively, with an increase in probability for illness in consumers and decreased shelf life of product. Technology, which would assist the food supply chain operators with accurate and timely estimations of the risk levels to consumers and controlled shelf life in the food supply chain, would represent a valuable tool for increasing the safety and quality of the food product. In this work, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) and shelf life prediction (SLP) models and computer codes have been developed to assist the hazard analysis and critical control point (HACCP) procedures. Although the SLP is not usually part of the HACCP, it has been added to the system in order to increase the efficiency of the complete operation including food quality and safety. The QMRA and SLP modules can operate as an integral part of the decision support system (DSS) but also could be used as standalone software tools for prediction and analysis in food supply chains. The communication between QMRA and SLP and DSS includes the input parameters from DSS related to temperature profile for a specific supply chain, food type, kind of microbial organisms and lab results which are provided at different points in the supply chain. The QMRA and SLP use their own internal data bases for model parameters for different supply chains and food products. The data bases could be updated or extended if necessary. The available data cover fish and poultry supply chains but QMRA and SLP modules are developed as general tools and could be used for different supply chains and different kind of food. Keywords: HACCP, quantitative microbial risk assessment, shelf life prediction.


Keywords: HACCP, quantitative microbial risk assessment, shelf life prediction.