Author(s)

G. B. M. Lacerda1, C. R. G. Souza2, C. Silva3 & M. A. V. Freitas1

Abstract

This work presents a methodological proposal for medium-term integrated planning and management of extreme natural risks and technological risks, focusing on events of coastal flooding caused by sea level rise (SLR). The research site contemplates private oil industry facilities, located in Redonda Island, Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Guanabara Bay suffers interaction with extra-tropical cyclones in the South Atlantic, where disasters, floods and coastal erosion need to be foreseen and managed properly. Under extreme meteorological-oceanographic conditions, a framework of predictive systems for risk management that involves climatic and environmental issues promoting greater capacity and responsiveness are necessary. In Brazil, the work is justified by the lack of methodological tools ad hoc for assessment and adaptation of coastal structures to face global change vulnerabilities, making them resilient and integrated into the natural coastal systems, and also to the emergency and responsiveness public and corporate systems’ plans and programs. Using software ArcGIS 9.3, simulation scenarios of sea level elevation and flooding impacts were elaborated, whose boundary conditions considered the

Keywords

climatic vulnerabilities, assessment, adaptation, methodological proposal, response actions, simulation of scenarios, thematic maps, decision making