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Relationship Between Electric Demand And CDD And The Forecast Of Daily Peak Electric Load In Beijing


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D. P. Ding, Z. Xie, X. Li, H. L. You & C. Han


The CDD (Cooling Degree Days) are correlated to the electric demand with the coefficient of 0.56 (a=0.01) during Jun. to Sept., 1951–2004. It shows that the variation of CDD can reflect the trend of electric demand greatly. So the energy consumption will follow the increasing trend of CDD in summer in future. The relationship between daily CDD and the electric peak load (Jun.–Sept., 2002–2004) was analyzed by a multiple regression model. It shows that with a 1 degree day increasing of CDD, the daily peak electric load increases by 798, 1058, 1062 and 479 MW respectively in each month from Jun. to Sept. According to the next day’s CDD and the peak electric load of the day before, the next day’s peak electricity load could be forecasted by the multiple regression models in summer. Keywords: CDD, electric demand, daily peak electric load. 1 Introduction The Impacts of weather and climate on energy consumption have recently received much attention. Some of them are related to economic losses, others bring profits. Weather has a significant impact on different sectors of the economy. One of the most sensitive sectors is the electricity market, because electric demand is linked to several weather variables, mainly to the air temperature. It is important to understand and be able to predict the effects of weather variables on electric load in order to manage effectively the generation and supply of electricity. Otherwise, studying the electric load behavior in advance is crucial in planning, analysis and operation of power systems so as to assure an uninterrupted, reliable, secure and economic supply of electricity. Both


CDD, electric demand, daily peak electric load.