WIT Press

On The Applicability Of Hindcast Time Series For The Prediction Of Extreme Sea Storms

Price

Free (open access)

Paper DOI

10.2495/CE030291

Volume

70

Pages

12

Published

2003

Size

562.44 kb

Author(s)

F. Arena, M. Sclavo, R. Piscopo & S. Carniel

Abstract

On the applicability of hindcast time series for the prediction of extreme sea storms F. ~rena', M. sclavo2, R. ~ i s c o ~ o ' & S. carnie12 ' ~ e ~ a r t m e n t of Mechanics and Materials, University 'Mediterranea : Italy 2 ~ ~ ~ - ~ ~ ~ R, Italy Abstract An analytical solution for the return period R(H,>h) of a sea storm in which the maximum significant wave height H, exceeds a fixed threshold h can be based on the 'equivalent sea' assumption: each actual storm is replaced by a triangular storm, where the triangle height a gives the storm intensity and the triangle base b the storm duration. The base-height regression, which is proven to be very useful for the risk analysis, may be then estimated from (ai,bi) values of all the storms. In this paper some preliminary results concerning the applicability of the hindcast data for the risk analysis are proposed. In particular some significant wave height time series are derived for the Adriatic Sea, by using a third generation wave model (SWAN

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