Uncertainty In The Implementation Of Automated Vehicle Guidance
Free (open access)
V. Marchau & W. Walker
Much has been written about the technologies of Automated Vehicle Guidance (AVG) -- electronic systems that support the driver in controlling his vehicle in a better way. Within these articles there is usually a focus on specific AVG technologies and/or a specific aspects of AVG implementation. Broader pictures of AVG implementation, in which the various AVG applications, their possible consequences for transportation system performance, and societal conditions for implementation are treated in an integrated way, are seldom presented. As such, the current value of these studies is highly limited with regard to public policy making. In this paper we take a systems view of AVG implementation. We examine how the different pieces might fit together given general transport goals, and how to proceed with implementation so that it can reach its potential. Major problems in this context involve the uncertainty associated with AVG implementation. A generic typology of uncertainties, their causes, and a possible way to deal with them is presented. This typology is based on the view that policymaking basically concerns making choices regarding a system (e.g. the transport system) in order to obtain desired system outcomes, We apply this typology to the field of policymaking with respect to AVG implementation, showing that large uncertainties exist about the outcomes of AVG policy decisions and about the valuation of the outcomes by stakeholders involved in or affected by AVG policy decisions. In order to deal with these uncertainties, a flexible or adaptive policy is proposed which allow adaptations in time as knowledge about AVG accumulates and critical events for AVG implementation take place.