Author(s)

L. Gucma and Z. Pietrzykowski

Abstract

Application of the probabilistic-fuzzy method of assessing the risk of a ship manoeuvre in a restricted area L. Gucma*, Z. Pietrzykowski^ Maritime University of Szczecin ul. Waly Chrobrego 1/2 70-500 Szczecin, Poland Abstract The paper presents possible applications of a new method of assessing navigational risk of a ship manoeuvring in a fairway. The method, based on the probabilistic analysis of risk and elements of fuzzy logic, allows to evaluate the risk taking into account such factors as the danger to the safety and the intuition that the safety of a ship manoeuvre is threatened. 1. Introduction In order to evaluate navigational risk in restricted areas (fairways, harbour entrances, harbour basins, turning basins etc.) the most frequently used are methods of quantitative risk analysis based on probabilistic methods. One approach in such cases utilises data from simulated passages conducted by navigators. From the data one can estimate parameters of the densit

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