Author(s)

MOHAMMAD RAHAL, SHAZA SOLEIMAN, BASSAM HUSSEIN

Abstract

National surveys have indicated that Idaho is one of the most desirable places to live in the USA. Compared to other states, it has abundant important resources, including water, renewable electricity, low crime rates, open space for cities and towns to develop and grow, outstanding recreational opportunities, a high quality of life, and one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. As a result, Idaho has been one of the fastest-growing states and its population has doubled since 1982. The purpose of this study is to determine the perceptions of Idahoans on how the state is addressing sustainable development goals over a period of 33 years &#Landslide probability estimation is crucial for risk assessment and mitigation, yet existing approaches often fail to effectively quantify the combined influence of multiple triggering factors. This study introduces a novel probabilistic methodology that explicitly incorporates three primary landslide triggers: heavy rainfall, significant earthquakes and severe human activity. The proposed framework calculates landslide probability by integrating conditional probability theory with dependency coefficients that capture trigger interactions. Unlike conventional models that assume independence among triggers, this approach accounts for both interdependent and counteracting interactions, leading to a more realistic assessment of landslide likelihood. The methodology employs Poisson-distributed event probabilities to estimate the annual occurrence of each trigger, while historical landslide records are used to derive conditional probabilities of failure. Additionally, a buffer-based approach is introduced to estimate landslide spatial impact on the total study area. This comprehensive methodology enhances predictive accuracy by integrating empirical observations, statistical probability models, and expert reasoning where necessary. The proposed framework provides geotechnical engineers and decision-makers with a systematic tool for landslide risk assessment and hazard mitigation.

Keywords

landslide probability, rainfall, earthquake, human activity, risk estimation, Poisson distribution