Author(s)

M. Schulwitz, T. Hillenbrand

Abstract

Planners of urban infrastructures are confronted with a dilemma: uncertainty about the concrete effects of global megatrends on the relevant small scale hinders long-term planning while build infrastructures are mostly inflexible to short- and mid-term changes. The presented approach uses 14 representative urban structure types for modelling the small-scale development of the population and the costs of water infrastructures in a dynamic scenario model. The results reflect the heterogeneous characteristics of different urban structures under changing conditions and thus can be a basis for more specific action recommendations. Furthermore, they illustrate the need for an integrated planning of urban development and water infrastructures to make use of simultaneous action windows and synergetic effects.

Keywords

water infrastructure, infrastructure costs, costs modelling, small-scale modelling, scenario model, urban structure types, urban planning, demographic change