Bayesian Strategies For The Reliability Assessment Of Heritage Structures
Free (open access)
221 - 232
P. Croce, F. Marsili
The reliability assessment of heritage structures is becoming an increasingly important and frequent engineering task. Probabilistic methods and Bayesian updating techniques are often combined to obtain realistic estimates, also aiming to target the best the possible interventions. Moreover, several factors often contribute to complicating the probabilistic approach, including uncertainties about the knowledge of the mechanical properties of materials, due to a lack of quantitative data from the structure. In this paper, a strategy to perform Bayesian updating used in assessing heritage structures, based on qualitative a posteriori judgment, is proposed, where the probability distribution function for the material properties are updated on the basis of the information available on similar structures. A case study concerning a relevant historical building is also presented.
heritage structures, reliability assessment, Bayesian analysis