WIT Press


Predicting Stock Market Indices Movements

Price

Free (open access)

Paper DOI

10.2495/CF040021

Volume

38

Pages

11

Published

2004

Size

362 kb

Author(s)

P.N. Rodriguez & A. Rodriguez

Abstract

This paper examines the extent to which the daily movements of three large emerging markets stock indices are predictable. Lagged technical indicators are used as explanatory variables. In the analysis, we employed seven classification techniques and assessed the discriminatory power of the classifiers through the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The results show that the daily movements of the three indices are better predictable than random. After taking into account the bias induced by non-synchronous price quotations, a trading system with break-even costs is simulated. The non-random classifiers yield returns above those of both random walk and contrarian investment strategies. No inefficiency is found due to the fact that re

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