Author(s)

M. Di Gangi

Abstract

In this paper a particular method of analysis of hazardous events is shown to determine a quantitative indicator by means of which it is possible to estimate the total risk to which the transport networks in a territory are subjected. To give a practical exemplification of the proposed procedure, an application to the real network of the historical centre of a small city is described, studying the evacuation in the hypothesis that in the event of a calamity the present population in the area follows the directives proposed from the municipal plan of civil protection. The assessment of the effects on the analysed transport network has been undertaken by means of the application of a mesoscopic dynamic assignment procedure with the aid of dedicated software. Different temporal periods have been considered within a day and the combination of the various scenarios of supply and demand has led to the construction of multiple scenarios of simulation, with the aim of analyzing the main types of situation, bearing in mind the vastness of the possible cases. The work done puts in evidence, more than the single results obtained for the particular case of study, how adequate quantitative methodologies based on a dynamic approach represent a useful instrument in supporting the process of the evacuation planning at the several territorial scales. Keywords: evacuation, dynamic assignment, emergency condition. 1 Introduction The evacuation of an area involves an amount of users larger than the ones usually considered in the simulation of a steady state working conditions of a

Keywords

evacuation, dynamic assignment, emergency condition.