WIT Press


Semiprobabilistic Integrated Model For Real Sea Forecasting

Price

Free (open access)

Paper DOI

10.2495/CENV040311

Volume

68

Pages

11

Published

2004

Size

400 kb

Author(s)

M. Greco, A. Mauro & G. Martino

Abstract

M. Greco, A. Mauro & G. Martino Department of Environmental Engineering & Physics, Abstract This paper proposes an innovative hindcasting methodology of sea states based on the \“Significant Wave Method” revisited in its application (Amatucci [1]) and integrated by probabilistic concepts coming from the \“Equivalent Triangular Storm model” and the \“Equivalent Sea model” (Boccotti [6]). The hindcasting model for the prediction of the wind waves has been changed using the real sequence of the wind states, wind stress factor and considering wave generation only in the direction of the wind, with fetch lengths averaged over small arcs or large arcs. With the obtained wind waves, the proposed analytical solution allows to forecast wave climate off a fixed location by the definition of the \“Resulted Hindcast Sea” and the associated \“Equivalent Hindcast Sea”. This method has been applied at the test case Tyrrhenian Sea - location Ponza (Italy), within a medium-long observation period (07/1989-12/1998) b

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