Author(s)

A. Roose

Abstract

As Estonia has experiencing rapid structural reform, the contraction has meant that air emissions have decreased dramatically in 1990s. Changing industrial structure may result in a completely different type of air pollution map and a different type of behaviour pattern of pollution load images. Air pollution has compounding effect depending on the temporal and geographical patterns of load, on dispersion, and on deposition, depending on the relative sensitivity of receiving sites. Under these circumstances the substitution between sources can be reached manipulating primary with location factors. The model establishes cause-effect links between production, emissions, and ambient air quality from the case of single-plant to complex situations. The study explores empirical methods to build predictive models of SO2 emission changes. The spatial analytical capabilities of raster system using approximate diffusion models for SO2 pollution load in a 1 km grid are explored. The series of images are examined as a whole and changes are explained according their significance and power. Surrogates demonstrate spatial preferences for air pollution control policies in the framework of European Directives. 1 Introduction Estonia is experiencing rapid changes in industrial structure and in pollution load from industrial activity. Industrial contraction, as the primary factor, has meant that emissions of SO2 have decreased by 53% between 1990 and 1999. However, Estonian oil shale based power plants are still reported to be among the biggest point source polluters in Europe. From an environmental perspective, the important question becomes deciding how effective abatement policies are in achieving real environmental improvements. Spatial analysis provides a good way of assessing effectiveness of policies.

Keywords