Author(s)

JAMIE BOST, MARK BROOMFIELD, SAM GORJI, ANDREW LEWIN, JULIA PITTMAN, MATTHIEU POMMIER, JOE RICHARDSON

Abstract

The transition to Net Zero is driving the rapid deployment of new industrial technologies, including carbon capture, hydrogen production and bioenergy, often concentrated within industrial clusters. While these technologies are expected to deliver substantial climate benefits, their cumulative impacts on air quality remain uncertain. An assessment of the potential cumulative air quality impacts associated with the deployment of Net Zero technologies within the Humber and Teesside industrial clusters in the United Kingdom has been carried out. Future deployment scenarios for 2035 were developed to represent delayed, moderate and accelerated uptake of Net Zero technologies. Emissions were estimated using a combination of national inventories, site-specific information and conservative permitting assumptions. A nested modelling framework was applied, combining regional-scale chemical transport modelling with local-scale dispersion modelling, to assess impacts on human health and sensitive ecological receptors. Results indicated that concentrations of conventional air pollutants, including nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), are unlikely to exceed relevant air quality standards under any scenario. However, amine-based carbon capture technologies introduced emissions of amines and associated degradation products, particularly N‑nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA). Modelled concentrations of NDMA exceeded conservative health-based assessment levels over significant areas in some scenarios, highlighting the importance of cumulative assessment for emerging pollutants. The findings demonstrate that, while Net Zero technologies can be deployed without worsening traditional air quality metrics, targeted controls are required to manage novel air quality risks.

Keywords

air quality modelling, Net Zero technologies, carbon capture, industrial clusters, NDMA