Author(s)

ANA MIRANDA, JOANA FERREIRA, DIOGO LOPES, SÍLVIA COELHO, DÍLIA JARDIM, PAULA MEIRELES

Abstract

Under the National Emission Ceilings Directive (NEC), which sets emission-reduction commitments, National Air Pollution Control Programs (NAPCP) should be developed and updated. To that end, Member States should define strategies to attain NEC and also to meet air quality targets and reduce health impacts. In Portugal, significant emission reductions have been achieved, mainly due to energy system decarbonisation, stricter industrial controls, cleaner vehicles and fuel switching. However, particulate matter (PM), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and ozone (O₃) remain critical pollutants in specific urban and rural regions. In this context, the NAPCP is being updated to provide a comprehensive assessment of progress towards compliance by 2030. Two emission projection scenarios for 2030 were considered: (i) the WEM (with existing measures) scenario, aligned with the national climate policy pathway towards climate neutrality by 2045, which assumes full implementation of existing climate and energy measures; and (ii) the WAM (with additional measures) scenario, which incorporates additional agricultural mitigation practices for ammonia (NH₃) reduction. To evaluate the impact of both scenarios on air quality and human health, a numerical modelling system, coupled with a health impact assessment model, was applied over mainland Portugal. The results show that WEM 2030 projections indicate likely compliance with air quality limit values for NO₂ and PM across mainland Portugal, while O₃ non-compliance areas are expected to decrease due to projected reductions in NOx and non-methane volatile organic compounds emissions affecting both urban and rural regions. Model results also indicate that additional NH₃ reductions under WAM decrease secondary PM formation, reinforcing improvements in air quality and associated health outcomes. Overall, the updated NAPCP moves beyond regulatory alignment to focus on implementation effectiveness, cross-sector coordination, and measurable air quality and health outcomes, reinforcing Portugal’s pathway toward cleaner air and sustainable development.

Keywords

NAPCP, NEC directive, air quality modelling, health impact assessment, WEM/WAM scenarios, Portugal