Author(s)

FABIO WENDELL GRAÇA NUNES, RICARDO MONTEIRO ROCHA, JOSÉ ESPINOLA JR, JOÃO HIGOR MENEZES DE SOUZA, MARCOS VENICIUS CARVALHO AMARAL, JEAN HENRIQUE MENEZES NASCIMENTO, IGOR DO NASCIMENTO SANTOS

Abstract

The forest fire prediction indexes are statistical tools used to assess the probability of fire occurrence, based on the weather conditions of the day or a time series. These indexes express whether there are favorable conditions for the occurrence of fire, which allows the adoption of more economic and effective preventive measures as well as the control over the planning of possible fires. The general objective of this research was to analyze if the atmospheric conditions are favorable to the occurrence of fires in Serra do Cabral in the municipality of Simão Dias – SE. According to White (2010), the most effective fire risk index to be applied in the territory of Sergipe is the Angstrom index. This index is based mainly on the temperature and the relative humidity of the air, both measured daily at 1 pm, being a non-cumulative index. Thus, this index was used to carry out the calculations of fire risk of the research. So atmospheric data were collected over a period of 4 years (2012–2015) and through this index, the fire occurrence conditions were determined. According to the results, the percentage of days with risk and the most favorable months of the fires were determined.

Keywords

atmospheric conditions, fire, risk index, forecast