Author(s)

E. Kamilova & B. Tsarev

Abstract

The present investigation is the first attempt in determining stress-induced changes in a soil-plant-insect ecosystem in an aluminum works zone to create a mathematical model satisfactorily describing the process of silkworm destruction due to the harmful emissions of an aluminum works and to develop an algorithm for rating the ecological risk and measures of its prevention. The major objective of this research was to create scientifically based recommendations for predicting the level of damage to the surrounding ecosystems by the aluminum works and to take adequate measures to protect the Great Silk Road. The investigations have been conducted by the evaluation of toxic metal accumulation in the ecosystem components with the distance limit of the wind rose exposure. Concentrations of manganese, iron, cobalt, zinc, cadmium, chromium, rubidium, selenium, scandium antimony, strontium, lithium, lead, mercury, silver, aluminum, beryllium, molybdenum, nickel, tin and copper were detected by the atomic absorption spectrophotometry method. The fluoride content was determined by the alizarinechelatometry photometry method. The theoretical basis of the algorithm was the theory of the survival of organisms under conditions of stress based on Strehler-Mildvan’s model. The data were processed by the ANOVA computer statistic tests. The real ecological process was successfully described by a forecast made on the basis of the obtained mathematical model. As a result, we have obtained the findings regarding the accumulation of zinc, nickel, mercury, antimony, etc. in the soils, silkworm excrements and the cocoons near the works. We have also obtained the threshold concentrations of the above mentioned elements in the ecosystem components leading to mortality of the silkworms and cocoons. Keywords: ecosystems modelling, silkworms, ecological risks, aluminum works.

Keywords

ecosystems modelling, silkworms, ecological risks, aluminum works.