WIT Press

Blind-testing experiments for interpreting spatial-prediction patterns of landslide hazard

Price

Free (open access)

Paper DOI

10.2495/SAFE-V6-N2-193-208

Volume

Volume 6 (2016), Issue 2

Pages

15

Page Range

193 - 208

Author(s)

ANDREA G. FABBRI & CHANG-JO CHUNG

Abstract

In this contribution, we analyse three separate databases in case study areas each suggestive of particular strategies to better portray their predictive power. A database in north-eastern Spain is used to separate sub-areas, with hopefully more compatible geomorphologic settings. Another database in central Portugal offers the opportunity of representing the uncertainty of predicted hazard class membership via iterative cross-validation with systematically partitioned landslide occurrences. A third database in central Slovenia is used to interpret the predictive qualities of two dynamic types of landslides: one that is relatively well predicting and the other one poorly predicting. The diversity of the experiments and their results, point at strategies of blind-testing, still unexploited in spatial prediction modelling, that are not necessarily limited to the landslide hazard domain.

Keywords

blind testing, cross-validation, empirical likelihood ratios, landslide hazard, prediction patterns, prediction-rate curves, target pattern