WIT Press

PATTERNS OF TEMPORAL DIFFUSION OF CRIME IN MEXICO

Price

Free (open access)

Paper DOI

10.2495/SAFE-V2-N1-54-68

Volume

Volume 2 (2012), Issue 1

Pages

14

Page Range

54 - 68

Author(s)

D.E. SANTOS-REYES & J.R. SANTOS-REYES

Abstract

Both academia and government institutions have paid significant attention to approach crime, over the last two decades. It seems that these approaches view crime as an isolated event and very little attention has been given to study the dynamic behaviour of crime through time. To understand the dynamics of crime, organisations need to answer a key question: How does crime evolve through time? This research uses a three parameter logistic function and nonlinear regression process to develop an understanding of the dynamics of crime in Mexico. It seems that crime behaviour is an orderly diffusion process. The patterns of temporal diffusion seem to grow slowly at the beginning, followed by an accelerating and then decelerating growth, culminating in saturation or decline. This might help to a better understanding of the rate of crime change so that better approaches can be formulated for preventing and controlling crime.

Keywords

Crime, diffusion, S-curve, systems