Author(s)

T. Osaragi

Abstract

Conversion of building structures or materials to an incombustible state is one of the most important issues in the field of disaster prevention planning. In this paper, we propose a statistical model that can describe the life span of buildings in order to evaluate the probability and speed of conversion of buildings to an incombustible state. We include an application of the model to actual data taken from the densely built-up areas of Tokyo, and new results are presented. Keywords: fire following earthquakes, incombustible city, disaster prevention planning, life span, demolition, building structures, probability of remainder. 1 Introduction In Japan, a large number of people have lost their lives in the fires that have followed earthquakes. Such fires are particularly destructive in densely built-up city-center areas, where building structures and materials are predominantly made of wood. The 1995 Hanshin-Awaji great earthquake that killed more than 6,300 people may be included in this category of disasters. Approximately 100 fires broke out in the initial stages of the earthquake, and then spread due to radiant heat and flame impingement. In total, 175 fires were observed within the 10 days following the earthquake, and an estimated one million square meters of land, including over 7,300 buildings, was burnt (Borden [1], Takai et al [2]). Conversion of building structures or materials to an incombustible state is therefore one of the most important issues in the field of disaster prevention planning (Sekito et al [3], Yokota et al [4]). Although research regarding the provision of fire-fighting services is of relevance to these disasters (Adrian [5], Richard et al [6], Wallace [7]), we should discuss fire prevention rather than

Keywords

fire following earthquakes, incombustible city, disaster prevention planning, life span, demolition, building structures, probability of remainder.