WIT Press


Explaining The Suspect Behaviour Of Travel Demand Forecasters

Price

Free (open access)

Paper DOI

10.2495/UT040261

Volume

75

Pages

10

Published

2004

Size

223 kb

Author(s)

P.A. Brinkman

Abstract

Thirty years ago scholars first presented convincing evidence that local officials use biased travel demand forecasts to justify decisions based on unstated considerations. Since then, a number of researchers have demonstrated convincingly that travel demand forecasts are systematically optimistic–often wildly so–for reasons that cannot be explained solely by the inherent difficulty of predicting the future. Why do modellers generate biased travel demand forecasts and tolerate the misuse of their work? Data from in-depth interviews with twenty-nine travel demand forecasters throughout the United States and Canada suggest new ways for understanding the suspect behaviour of transportation planning professionals. Those most likely to introduce bias and invite misuse of travel forecasts assume that their technical analyses have little, if any, impact on po

Keywords