Author(s)

S. Gucma

Abstract

This paper presents a general method for the risk assessment of manoeuvring ships within restricted areas. This risk is characterized by the possibility of collision and the subsequent effects. The probability of collision is determined by the following factors: 1. Navigational reliability of any given manoeuvre. 2. Human factors in the vessel-navigator system. 3. Technical reliability of the vessel. The probability of collision can be calculated by means of computer simulation methods and a theory of reliability. The effects of collision are assessed using physical methods which involve the dynamic parameters of ships as calculated by simulation research. 1. Introduction One of the most current problems of shipping safety is navigational risk assessment in limited sea a

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