Author(s)

BORIS DAVYDOV, VLADIMIR CHEBOTAREV, KSENIYA KABLUKOVA

Abstract

This paper proposes the generalised model for formation the patterns of train arrival time distribution. The model provides that the arrival time has a random component. A feature of the model is the allowance for the stochastic dependence of travel interval on train departure time deviation. Within the framework of the model, a formula for the distribution function of the arrival time is obtained. The paper describes the method for checking the degree of stochastic relationship of the above random variables. Theoretical formulations are confirmed by analysis of statistical data reflected by the passenger train traffic on Russian railways.

Keywords

train traffic, stochastic model, operation time distribution, statistical dependency