Author(s)

BORIS DAVYDOV, VLADIMIR CHEBOTAREV, KSENIYA KABLUKOVA

Abstract

Random impacts and interaction of trains in a dense flow cause small deviations of arrival times. A model for the forming of train delays is proposed. Formulas for the delay distributions depending on distribution functions of random stops and initial departure times are obtained. Influence of the driver’s efforts on distribution resulting is also considered. We also analyze the properties of arrival intervals and deviation scatterings obtained from initial distributions with real-world parameters. Statistical data collected on a suburban railway are used to compare the model distributions with the real scatterings of train delays. Obtained results confirm a good fit with the proposed delays model.

Keywords

train traffic, online adjustments, stochastic model, optimal rescheduling, train delays