Geostatistics/reliability Based Risk Analysis Of The Vajont Landslide
Free (open access)
607 - 615
M. Guarascio, M. Lombardi, G. Rossi & G. Sciarra
This paper is devoted to the probabilistic analysis of the Vajont landslide event according to the basic statements of risk analysis. In particular, the goal is to find out a regressive estimate of the landslide rate of movement in terms of the rainfall, Rf , and the reservoir level, Rl, time evolution during the test period. This will be obtained by developing a kind of geostatistical analysis on the space of standardized variables (Rf,Rl), based on classical ordinary kriging. Risk analysis will be formulated introducing a suitable safety margin function, depending on the mass of the slide,M, on its initial velocity, vin, and the amplitude,H, of thewater wave flowing out of the Vajont basin. Keywords: geostatistics, reliability, risk analysis.
geostatistics, reliability, risk analysis