WIT Press

Accident Prediction Models In Urban Areas: Lisbon Case Study


Free (open access)

Paper DOI






Page Range

619 - 627




583 kb


S. Vieira Gomes, C. Carvalheira, J. Cardoso & L. Picado Santos


According to official statistics, an important percentage of accidents and injuries are reported in Portuguese urban areas: from 2004 to 2007, 70% of the injury accidents and 43% of the fatalities occurred inside urban areas. To develop an efficient and affective strategy towards road safety, it is necessary for road administrations to have the proper tools for the quantification of safety levels and the explicit consideration of safety issues in the road management process. The analysis of spatial accident distribution in road networks and the knowledge of the relations between accident frequencies and variables describing the urban road environment will allow a more efficient definition of priorities for intervention and safety funding. This can be achieved by means of accident prediction models adapted to the urban context where they are applied, and by the use of a Geographic Information System based methodology to analyse spatial patterns of road accidents. This paper summarizes the result of the bibliographic study on accident prediction models applied to urban areas and the data collection on road accidents, road infrastructure characteristics and traffic and land use information, integrated in a Geographic Information System, where it may be graphically visualized and analyzed. Keywords: accident prediction model, road safety, pedestrians, geographical information system. 1 Introduction The estimation of the number of accidents that may occur on a given road section as a result of its design characteristics plays an important role in the highway engineering community. Several studies were developed in this area,


accident prediction model, road safety, pedestrians, geographical information system.