WIT Press


The Building Blocks Of Risk Theory And Methodology

Price

Free (open access)

Paper DOI

10.2495/CMEM150171

Volume

59

Pages

12

Page Range

189 - 200

Published

2015

Size

384 kb

Author(s)

N. Kovács, K. Koppány, D. R. Szabó

Abstract

The study aims to present a brief summary of the results of a methodological research carried out within the GOP project “Research and development of risk evaluation services in the construction industry”. The first part of the study elaborates the literature of risk management process, the logical framework of the development, the concepts of risk and uncertainty, and the measurement and quantification of risks. The second part presents the interpretation of risks and risk analysis techniques used by us. The most important building block of our model is the stochastic network analysis and the Monte Carlo simulation which can generate the distributions of the durations and costs of projects, the two essential characteristics of construction projects. Our method can be mainly used for the collection and aggregation of the knowledge about the existing risks, as well as for analyzing the risks at enterprises, however, it’s also suitable for building up of hard statistical data.

Keywords

risk management, project management, Monte-Carlo simulation, construction industry