WIT Press

A Statistical Model To Predict Gift Patterns In Large Distribution (GDO), Industry And Trade Promotions


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F Cornalba, P Giudici, A Lazzarini & P Rebecchi


A Statistical model to predict gift patterns in large distribution (GDO), industry and trade promotions. F. Cornalba1, P. Giudici1, A Lazzarini2, P. Rebecchi2 1 University of Pavia, Italy 2 Coro Marketing Activities s.r.l., Piacenza, Italy Abstract We consider a problem about the way of predicting the exit of gifts in a promotional catalogue for a chain of Hypermarkets located in Northern Italy. The aim of this paper is to compare experimental and statistical methods to achieve a reliable predictive model. We realize a predictive statistical model using Microsoft Excel. In this way we can obtain a data processing-statistical instrument that allow us to join the valuation of data with the commercial needs of the large-scale retail trade (GDO). We underline the role of performance evaluation data using methods for resolving problems. 1 Introduction We briefly explain the results of the scientific research that Coro Marketing Activities in Piacenza (Coro deals with the organization and management of fidelity programs related to large distribution (GDO), Industry and Trade) has developed with the Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods of the University of Pavia. For the research a particular convention has been defined and 6 months internship has been put in place nearby the Coro’s head-office. The main aim of the work refers to the definition of a statistical model for the forecasting of outgoing premiums in relation to promotional activities (e.g points collection etc.). The Company has decided to realise such model using the Excel Software, because it is a very well-known program and additionally it allows to obtain