WIT Press

Risk Based Decision Making In Kaunas Hydropower System During Flood Period


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J. Simaityte Volskiene, J. Augutis & E. Uspuras


The biggest hydropower system (HS) in Lithuania is situated on River Nemunas and consists of Kruonis pump storage plant and Kaunas hydropower plant. Just downstream from the system Kaunas city is situated, with a population over 0.4 million, the safety of the population is strongly dependent on the hydropower system reliability. Risk decision strategies considered using risk analysis, applied for the following system issues: before the water level reaches maximal limit, it is necessary to make risk based decisions related to the dam safety. A risk based decision making model proposes a water amount in the upper and downstream reservoirs and by numerical examples shows how decisions are dependent on different risk levels in order to decrease flood risk. Keywords: risk based decision making, dam safety and flood management. 1 Introduction The recent attempts to increase renewable energy generation and rising public awareness concerning safety and environmental issues have led to a demand for improved performance also in hydro energy and water recourses management. Decision makers have to find the best strategies for water recourses control in order to support an acceptable risk level of the systems and at the same time meet economical and environmental requirements. The main goal of this study is to develop strategies, which would help the dam owners to accept risk based decisions during the flood period performing Kaunas hydropower reservoir control: 1) water level control; 2) water discharge control and 3) water volume in Kaunas reservoir and Kruonis artificial reservoir control. Development of decision strategies is based on qualitative risk assessment.


risk based decision making, dam safety and flood management.