Author(s)

R. Ghanem

Abstract

. A crucial point in any integrated assessment project is the development of reduced models of the various components being integrated. These reduced models are necessary as they permit the management of very complex systems in an acceptable time frame. More importantly though, reduced models should be designed so as to permit the various components of a complex system to interface by exchanging their inputs and outputs. In designing these models, it is essential to determine beforehand which inputs and outputs encapsulate the important characteristics of each subsystem vis-a-vis the task at hand. Given the levels of uncertainty in the systems associated with global change in general, and environmental systems in particular, a probabilistic framework is a most suitable context for carrying out the model

Keywords